Decisions
As I have gotten older some
decisions have become easier to make while others have taken on a complexity
that I could never have imagined 30 years ago; maybe even 3 years ago. Some decisions are painless to me. And some decisions just don’t matter. Saying that I don’t really care about the
outcome of a decision in some instances could truly be an understatement. The frustrating thing is that those very
decisions are sometimes the ones that are the most difficult to make.
Traveling down the road on vacation we
approach a town around noon and the conversation goes something like this.
“Where do you want to eat?”
“I don’t care. Where do you want to eat?”
“Doesn’t matter to me. What
do you want to eat?”
“I don’t know. Are you hungry?”
“Yes, I’m hungry. Are you?”
“Yes.”
“Well, where do you want to eat? It doesn’t’ matter to me. You choose, as long as it isn’t McDonald’s.”
And thus the conversation goes until we pass
the last freeway exit to the town.
“Is there anything in the backseat to munch
on?”
“Sure.
What do you want?”
“What is available?”
I suppose that there is nothing
earth-shattering about such decisions except for the fact that there seems to
be a plethora of them to make. The
stress comes as a result of the simple inability to make a decision.
At the other end of the spectrum
are those decisions that have long term consequences and affect people, often
myself, family, or close friends and associates. I don’t care for those types of
decision-making situations any more than the inconsequential ones that come
along. Knowing the consequences of poor
choices can bring decision-making to a standstill.
The sergeant’s exam has been given and all
the test scores and performance evaluations have been submitted. Seven police officers applied for the one
open sergeant’s position. Two of the
officers clearly stand out as the two top contenders.
Mary and José are exceptional officers. Their performance evaluations are identical
as are their sergeant’s test scores.
Mary is the first female officer in the history of this department to
come out on top in the testing process.
If promoted, she will be the first female officer to become a supervisor.
José has been on the department for 12
years. He has taken the sergeant’s exam
six times. Not only is this the first
time he has passed the exam, he, like Mary aced the test. Likewise, his performance appraisals are
impeccable. If promoted to sergeant, he
would become the only Hispanic supervisor on the department.
I cannot consider the fact that Mary is a
single mother with two small children at home, nor can I consider the fact that
José is well-respected within the department and has a child headed off to
college in the fall. Both could use the
raise that would come with the promotion.
If I promote Mary the Hispanic community will be up in arms. If I promote José, well, all the women’s
groups in town will be marching on City Hall.
I suppose some decisions are made
instinctually or perhaps as the result of years of simply having to make the
same decision several times.
Stopped at an intersection I wait for the
traffic light to turn green. And I wait.
The light turns green for traffic headed in
my direction and all the vehicles coming from adjacent traffic lanes have
stopped and it is safe for me to proceed.
That seems fairly straight-forward unless
you add a twist to it. Still, there are
rules of the road that apply (or are supposed to apply) to everybody legally
driving on the road.
The light turns green for my traffic and the
traffic in adjacent lanes have come to a stop.
The intersection is clear, but I want to turn left and there is traffic
coming from the opposite direction. The traffic
rules say that I must yield the right-of-way to traffic coming straight through
the intersection.
Of course, this could become complicated
with things like emergency vehicles approaching the intersection or perhaps the
light never turning green for you.
The light has turned green and I see that it
is safe to proceed through the intersection.
Just as I pull half way through the intersection I see through my
peripheral vision a car racing to the intersection which in my opinion will not
be able to stop in order to avoid a collision with my car. I turn the steering wheel to maneuver the car
away from the probable impact zone and slam on my brakes.
Instinctual (or instinctive) self-preservation
at its finest, though it is possible that you have learned through others’
experiences that if you don’t take evasive action that you will be hurt. Even then, the decisions are
instantaneous. There is no need for a
committee recommendation on this maneuver.
Speaking of committees, some
decisions really are best made by committee, especially when there are multiple
“stake holders” and people have a vested interest in the outcome of a
decision—and if you have lots of time to make the decision. Committees have the luxury of investigating
the problem, gathering data, and considering alternative solutions along with
their probable outcomes.
There appears to be an influx of commercial
burglaries taking place downtown. Your
assignment is to (1) apprehend the burglars, and (2) implement a strategy to
prevent future burglaries.
The property crimes lead detective meets
with the rest of the bureau and reviews all the burglary reports that have
taken place downtown in the last six months.
All crimes are located on a pin map with particular attention to
burglaries. Times of burglaries are
narrowed down and types of merchandise taken are classified. Arrests that have been made in that area are
scrutinized as well as the parking tickets and traffic citations in order to
get an idea as to who has been in the area when these crimes have taken place. Patterns begin to emerge as to day of week
and time of day when the burglaries take place.
One person who was arrested for shoplifting the type of merchandise that
had been taken in the burglaries also has a parking ticket on the night of one
of the burglaries. A person of interest
has now been identified as a result of several officers asking “what if”
questions and suggesting different things to look at.
As the team of officers considers their
person of interest a plan of action is developed based on knowledge of the
suspect, his prior arrest record, and the likelihood that he would confess if
confronted. They consider any drug habit
the person has and perhaps that person’s propensity to violence. Decisions are made concerning informants and
the probability of tipping their hand if they start asking questions of friends
and associates. One officer on the team
notes that the person of interest always seems to be in need of cash and is
unemployed, and has done business with a local pawn shop in the past.
Based on all the information the officers
have they decide to conduct stakeouts based upon the modus operandi used in the previous burglaries. If nothing develops, records of pawn shops
will be reviewed.
Since a decision has been made to conduct
stakeouts of potential burglary targets over a period of a few weeks, the committee
decides to hold off on implementing prevention training for local businesses.
Whenever committees make
decisions it is quite possible that ethical questions will arise, as is the
case in the above scenario. For that
matter, questions of ethics enter into any decision-making process.
Some decisions become easy to
make because of what I call pre-planning.
These are the types of decisions that are covered in handbooks, rules,
or special orders. Simply stated, “When
“A” occurs you will take the following action.
There seems to be a fair amount of this in the military, but this type
of decision-making is not exclusive to them.
It may appear in such a form that requires a person to “sell” when the
market reaches a certain point.
The professor wrote the course syllabus
prior to the beginning of the class and outlined all the learning outcomes,
topics for discussion, reading assignments, and due dates. Included in the syllabus were the course
assignments that included papers, presentations, and examinations. Each assignment was clearly weighted and by
the end of the course students who had achieved 90% or better for all the
assigned work would receive the promised A.
Those who achieved 80% through 89% would get a final grade of B, and so
on until the lowest possible passing grade a student could receive would be a D
upon successful completion of 60 to 69% of the work.
The end of the semester arrived and the
professor has just completed grading the final exams. After placing the grades in the gradebook the
professor begins to tabulate all the scores from papers, quizzes,
presentations, and tests. Alan has a
final score of 95%. That’s an A. Bethany has a final score of 97; that also is
an A. Catherine scored 75%, which earns her a C grade. David’s final score is 82%, which is a
B. Ethan also scored 82%. There is another B. Frank, who hardly ever showed up to class has
a final score of 60%. That is the first
D in the class. Frank’s work that he
completed was excellent work; it’s just that he didn’t do all the work. George attended every class and put forth
tremendous effort in the class. George
is a pleasure to have in class. His A
based on his 100% score was earned.
Henry is also a pleasure to have in class. He worked and put forth great effort and
attended every class. He even found a
tutor for the class. His final score for
the course is 58%.
Having a predetermined course of action for
each scenario is easy. Sometimes.
Ivana came from a home with loving parents
who taught her solid principles to guide her through her life. They also gave her opportunities to spread
her wings and try different experiences.
As a result she was on the girls varsity soccer team and played the
clarinet in orchestra. She has a major supporting role in the senior class play
and is involved in community service.
She is well liked in school, but certainly is not part of the
self-appointed “in crowd”. She decided
when she was 10 or 11 years old that she would never drink alcohol. She had seen what it does to families and
recognized at that early age that trouble often follows those who drink to
excess.
Ivana accepted the invitation of friends on
the soccer team to a party Friday night.
The music was perfect. All her
friends were there. There was laughter
and swapping of stories, dreams, and ambitions.
As the night wore on, things began to slow down. The lights in the room got dimmer and dimmer
as the volume of the music increased and the laughter continued. As the stories continued Ivana found that she
was now the center of attention. She was
also getting tired. All eyes seemed to
be focused on her as she related her experiences in high school and her dreams
of college and a future career. As she
is talking, Bill reaches behind him and grabs a beer from off a table. Ivana had not seen any alcoholic beverages at
the party prior to this. Soon, one by
one, others in the circle are also holding cans of beer. Bill, a popular basketball player and class
president grabs another beer and hands it to Ivana. The music is louder now and the room is
virtually dark. Everybody is looking at
her.
Having a predetermined course of action for
each scenario is easy. Sometimes.
Of course, Ivana could not know
that the local police department has a predetermined course of action in place
for parties with underage drinking. It
includes referral to juvenile authorities for those who are still minors and
arrest for those over the age of 18 but have not yet reached 21. The prestigious private university where she
has been accepted also has a predetermined course of action for each scenario
that potential students may find themselves in.
It revokes acceptance of those students who have been charged with a
crime, even petty misdemeanors and violations other than traffic
violations. Mom and Dad, non-drinkers
themselves, are loving and supportive, but are disappointed.
Still, predetermined courses of action have
their place; it’s just so hard to follow through with those decisions sometimes
regardless of how determined you were at the time you made them. But, a good deal of the time, probably most
of the time, the predetermined decision is the right decision.
Jack was overweight, not exercising, and
certainly not eating right. There wasn’t
a candy bar made that he didn’t like.
Finally, he made a decision. He
went to visit his doctor and the doctor ordered a series of lab tests. A month later when Jack returned to the
doctor, his doctor nearly fell out of his chair when he saw that Jack’s A1C was
11.5 and his blood glucose level was 241.
The predetermined course of action was a powerful combination of
prescriptions and a crash course in healthy eating. Failure with this course of action would
result in a daily routine of insulin injections.
Jack returned to the doctor three months
later having lost 20 pounds, an A1C of 5.5, and a blood glucose level of 95.
The doctor’s assessment of the problem after
gathering all the facts and the decision to follow a course of action combined
with Jack’s decision to follow his doctor’s orders brought about the desired
results.
So many of life’s decisions seem
so insignificant. We make tons of them
every day. “What will I wear today? Which task should I complete first? Should I buy cereal from Post, Kellogg, or the
store brand? How do I want my eggs
cooked? Wheat crackers or club
crackers? Black socks or navy blue
socks? Black belt or brown belt? Some decisions have to be based upon the
desired outcome and others simply have to be made.
Decision Making
There is a common diagram that is
used in some management texts that demonstrates the decision-making
process. It begins with a simple box
called a decision followed by several other boxes identified as potential
courses of action (optional choices). Following
each choice on this decision-making tree is a list of probable outcomes for
each optional course of action. From
there, the decision maker is supposed to pick a course of action. It looks something like this.
The Decision Tree
The Decision Tree is alright for
what it represents, but it lacks some very important concepts. First, it does not take into account our
ability to control, or at least contain to some extent, our environment. The decision tree simply says if you take
this course of action the following outcomes will take place. Second, it does not let you choose your
outcome. This model assumes that you
have a decision to make and that you are willing to accept an outcome, the best
outcome that will result from the decision.
It assumes that you actually want whatever it is that is dangling out
there for the taking. What it should do is allow you to set your goal
up front and then make decisions that lead to that goal.
As I ponder on the
decision-making model that I have below I can’t help but think that it should
apply not only to business decisions, but also to decisions such as the first
example that I presented – “Are you hungry?”
For all the naysayers out there
and for all those who are saying, “Yes, but what about…?” yes, this is
oversimplified, but it conveys the general principles involved.
There are other types of
decisions out there that we often make, but I am not going to discuss them
here. I probably won’t come back and
discuss them at all. However, I simply
want to acknowledge the fact that there are other types of decisions that we
are often faced with that we end up making on a regular basis. There are three more points that I would like
to briefly discuss concerning decisions that I believe are important for our
discussion here.
Consequences
Need I say more?
Of course, I do!
With each choice we make there is
a consequence. The consequence of just
grabbing two socks from your sock drawer at six in the morning when you really
are not awake is a mismatched pair of socks.
Recognizing that you are likely to grab
mismatched socks at six in the morning when you really are not awake leads to
another decision that you must make.
Since I’m not really awake in the morning
when I get dressed, should I mate my socks before I put them in the sock drawer
while I’m awake? Or, maybe I should just
buy nothing but black socks! That way I
don’t have to worry about being awake when I reach into my sock drawer.
Problem solved!
Oh, that all problems could be
resolved with such ease! But, you
understand the principle here. Steven Covey liked to draw a parallel of choice
and consequences to a stick. When you
pick up one end of a stick you also pick up the other end by default. So it is, with choices, said Mr. Covey. You make a choice and the consequences come
along with it. Jack in one of the
stories above chose to lead an unhealthy lifestyle which lead to undesirable
consequences—Type 2 Diabetes. Later he
made other choices that led to controlling his diabetes, that of taking his
medications and living a healthier lifestyle.
The thing is, he will never shake diabetes as a consequence of his
earlier choices. The consequence of not
deciding where to eat while on a road trip was the passage through town without
stopping to eat and having to rely on a snack that happened to be in the
car. The consequence of succumbing to
peer pressure to drink a beer led to Ivana’s arrest and subsequent removal of
her acceptance to the university of her choice.
There are two basic types of
consequences: natural consequences and contrived consequences.
Do you remember Henry who got a 58% as a
final score for his class?
A failing grade in the class in reality is a
contrived consequence. Though the
standard was set well in advance of the final exam, his professor chose the
grade distribution pattern and what
students would be tested on and how they would be graded on their papers and
presentation. In reality, Henry may have
learned more in that class than anybody else sitting in the same room,
including Alan and Bethany, both of whom received A’s for their coursework.
On the other hand, had Henry not studied and
put forth heroic effort, the natural consequence of his actions would not only
include a failing grade, but also a lack of learning.
Let’s return to Alan and Bethany for a
minute.
School comes easily for Alan. All he has to do is take notes in class and
read the assignments and he can pass virtually any test that is given to
him. All he has to do is cram for the
exam the night before the test and put everything into short-term memory and he
can ace any test, which is what he did for the same course that Henry took.
The A that Alan got in the course is a
contrived consequence. Unfortunately for
Alan, most of everything that he studied was lost. It was not learned; the natural consequence
of not putting in the effort necessary to “pass” the course.
Is this making sense now?
There are many examples that we
could give here. The contrived
consequence of a child riding his bicycle into the street without paying
attention is the spanking and lecture he gets from his mother. The natural consequence comes when he is
struck by a car. The contrived
consequence for playing in the rain during a lightning storm is a lecture from
Mom on the dangers of playing in such a storm and being told that you will now
have to wash and dry your own laundry.
The natural consequences for playing in the storm is (1) getting wet,
and (2) potentially being struck by lightning.
(O.K., there might be a third consequence: having fun.) The contrived consequence for speeding
through a school zone is a traffic citation with a hefty fine. The natural consequence is not having enough
time and distance to avoid hitting the child that runs into your path as you
drive down the road. You see, at 20 mph
on dry pavement it takes a car about 17 feet to come to a stop after the driver
applies the brakes; even less at 15 mph.
However, there is an exponential growth in the distance that it takes to
stop a car as it goes faster. It takes
about 37 feet to stop that same car traveling at 30 mph. This assumes ideal driving conditions on new
pavement and in good weather and does not consider reaction time. People don’t think of these things when
whizzing through school zones, but these laws of physics happen to be natural
laws and violating them has natural consequences.
The Choices We Make
In both my careers I had the job
of working with employees in goal-setting.
I found the goal-setting process in my policing career especially
frustrating as I worked with employees in setting goals. So often, police officers would set training
goals that required me to complete
them. The goals would go something like
this.
By the end of this year I will attend 40
hours of training, 20 of which will take place out of state.
I hope you understand the problem
with this goal and similar goals that people set. The problem here is that people sometimes set
goals over which they have absolutely no control. As their employer I didn’t have the kind of
money in my budget to send 35 police officers out of state for training every
year and most of the time the police department didn’t have the need for the
type of training that they wanted to obtain.
So, when it comes to goal-setting it is really important to have control
over what it is that you want to achieve.
You absolutely cannot set
goals for yourself that depend upon somebody else doing something. You
must have the power to make that goal become a reality.
Plan B
Often is the case that in spite
of our best efforts we fail to arrive at the desired option or the goal.
A personal experience is in order.
I was in a position for a significant
promotion at work. It was a very
significant promotion. I had worked hard
for the promotion. I had all the right
people supporting me for the promotion.
I jumped through all the hoops for the promotion. I was at the top of the list for the
promotion. Everything I had done on the
job had been to the end of getting that promotion. Failure at getting the promotion was not even
a thought. It was not conceivable. I had been told by a person previously in a
position to decide on that promotion that when I was ready that the promotion
was mine. Of course, that person was no
longer in that position and somebody else was making the decision. To make a long story short, I did not get the
promotion. I was devastated.
Consequently (there is a form of that word
again), I was left dangling with nowhere to figuratively go. I was as a leaf blowing in the wind; a
rudderless ship. It took me a few months
to actually come to my senses and come up with an alternative plan. Plan B. Plan B
prepared me for other opportunities that as I look back on them were even
greater than that promotion that I sought.
Meanwhile, I think back on all that time that I wasted feeling sorry for
myself and not having a clear path to follow.
Had I had Plan B in my pocket from the very beginning I could have moved
on in accomplishing the goal over which I had control.
Concluding Thoughts
Sometimes we have to make
decisions that we don’t want to make.
They are thrust upon us and we have no choice but to act. Some of the hardest ones we have to make often
involve loved ones and friends. I have
been blessed to be in a marriage that has worked out for the past 45 years. I am lucky.
I cannot imagine what it would be like to be in a marriage where one
partner or the other must make a decision to dissolve the marriage, especially
when the love has been so deep and so many efforts have been made to make the
marriage work. Unfortunately, those
decisions sometimes must be made.
I worked for a judge for three years before
I entered my policing career. Every
Friday was what he called Dom Rel Day—Domestic Relations Day. That was the long way of saying Divorce
Court.
“I don’t like divorce,” said Judge
Smith. “Nobody really wins in a divorce,
especially the kids. But, everybody is
affected by divorce. The parents of the
wife and the husband, all the in-laws, and even the schools and society are
affected when a couple divorces. But,
sometimes divorce is necessary. In some
cases divorce is a much more suitable resolution to marital discord than the
alternative, which amounts to suicide or murder or both. I’ll grant a divorce anytime to prevent that
from happening.”
Judge Robert Smith was a wise man.
Friendships are like marriages in
many ways. There is a social bond that
exists in friendships that is cemented by shared experiences and values. The interesting thing I’ve noticed about
friendships is that separation by time and distance doesn’t necessarily kill
the friendship. I recall not having seen
some of my high school friends for 40 years then being reunited with them. Conversations continued as though they had
never ended and the feeling of friendship had never ceased. It takes much more than time and distance to
break up a friendship. In fact, some of
those friendships seemed even stronger than they were 40 years prior.
I’ve seen a number of friendships
dissolve in my lifetime.
Some of the hardest decisions we
have to make involve friends and loved ones.
